Does exercise make you hungrier so you lose less fat?

Short answer

A little less, but you still lose weight. Over months, people ate about 100 kcal more a day and lost less than the math predicted, but even without changing their diet they still lost 4 to 5 kg in 10 months.

Does exercise make you hungrier so you lose less fat?
'Exercise → more hunger → eat more → no weight lost' — does this formula hold?
People say exercise boosts your appetite, so you end up eating more and the weight never comes off. We checked right after exercise, after a few months, and the final weight change.
Right after exercise, people did not eat more
29 studies: the calories burned were not refilled
An analysis that pooled 29 studies and 51 experiments let people eat freely 0 to 2 hours after exercise. They ate almost the same as on rest days. So on the day itself, the calories burned stayed burned.
But after a few months it changes
24 weeks of exercise: 91 to 124 kcal more food a day
171 people did supervised exercise for 24 weeks, at two doses equal to about 640 kcal and 1,600 kcal a week for an 80 kg (176 lb) person. The exercise groups ate 91 kcal and 124 kcal more a day and lost 1.5 kg and 2.7 kg less than predicted. It was not because their metabolism or daily movement dropped.
Pooling other studies gave the same answer
Better-quality studies: about 102 kcal more a day
A 2021 review of 48 studies lasting weeks to months found that exercise slightly raised hunger before meals. In the better-quality studies, exercisers ate about 102 kcal more a day. Eating more because of hunger is real, but small.
People differ a lot, though
From gaining weight to losing more than predicted
In a 1-year exercise trial, 64% lost less than predicted and 26.6% actually gained. 9.4% lost more than predicted. A review of 61 studies with 928 people found that on average 18% of the burned calories were offset, rising to 84% in long studies of around 80 weeks.
Still, the weight came off
10 months, same diet: 3.9 to 5.2 kg lost
141 people exercised 5 days a week for 10 months, burning 400 or 600 kcal a session, and ate as usual. They lost 3.9 kg and 5.2 kg, while the non-exercise group gained 0.5 kg. In the same trial, food intake did not differ among the three groups.
Bottom line: you lose less, but you lose
The formula fails at 'no weight lost'
A 2024 analysis that pooled 116 trials with 6,880 people found each 30 minutes of aerobic exercise a week cut body weight by 0.52 kg. 150 minutes a week works out to about 2.6 kg. Keeping an eye on the extra 100 kcal or so a day you eat after exercise brings the result closer to the math.