Does skipping breakfast make you gain weight?

Short answer

No. In trials that had people skip breakfast, they did not gain more weight. They ate 260 kcal less a day and weighed 0.44-0.54 kg less. What decides your weight is not breakfast but how much you eat and move over the whole day.

Does skipping breakfast make you gain weight?
'Skip breakfast → overeat at lunch and dinner → gain weight' — does this hold?
A common claim: skip breakfast and you get so hungry you eat more at lunch and dinner, so you gain weight. We checked this formula one step at a time using trials that actually made people skip breakfast.
Breakfast skippers are heavier
44% higher risk of overweight
An analysis of 45 observational studies found that, in the 9 studies that followed people over time, frequent breakfast skippers had a 44% higher risk of overweight or obesity. But this comes from watching people who skip breakfast, not from making people skip it.
But when people were told to skip it
309 people, 16 weeks: no weight difference
309 people were split into eat breakfast, skip breakfast or no instructions, and followed for 16 weeks (283 finished). All three groups lost 0.5-0.8 kg, with no difference between them. It didn't matter whether they were breakfast eaters or skippers to begin with.
Do people eat more at lunch and dinner?
Only partly: breakfast eaters ate 539 kcal more
33 people either ate 700+ kcal at breakfast or fasted until noon for 6 weeks. The fasters ate more later but didn't fully make up for it, so breakfast eaters took in 539 kcal more a day. Breakfast eaters also moved 442 kcal more a day, and body weight stayed the same.
More trials said the same
Skippers were actually 0.44-0.54 kg lighter
A 6-week trial in 23 people also found no weight difference. An analysis of 13 trials found breakfast eaters ate 260 kcal more a day and weighed 0.44 kg more. Another analysis of 7 trials with 425 people found skippers were 0.54 kg lighter.
Other numbers did differ, though
Bad cholesterol and afternoon blood sugar
In 3 trials within that 425-person analysis, breakfast skippers had bad cholesterol 9.24 higher. In the 33-person trial, fasters' blood sugar swung more in the afternoon and evening, and in the 23-person trial, insulin response improved with breakfast.
Bottom line: skipping breakfast doesn't make you gain weight
What counts is your total for the day
In trials where people skipped breakfast, they did not gain more weight and ate 260 kcal less a day. Skippers partly made up for it at lunch and dinner, while breakfast eaters moved more. You can eat or skip breakfast based on your hunger and routine.